by ISAGANI DE CASTRO, JR.
abs-cbnNEWS.com/Newsbreak
Former President Joseph Estrada has become the second choice of Filipinos for president, according to a recent survey by a polling firm.
Based on a July 1 to 14 survey of Pulse Asia, Vice-President Noli de Castro remained the top choice of Filipinos for president followed by Estrada.
De Castro topped the survey with 22% followed by Estrada with 16%, based on a pre-selected list of presidential candidates which respondents were asked to choose from..
They were followed by five senators, namely:
- Senator Francis Escudero: 14%
- Senator Loren Legarda: 14%
- Senator Manuel Villar: 12%
- Senator Manuel Roxas: 8%
- Senator Panfilo Lacson: 5%
Those in the bottom of the survey were:
- Makati City Mayor Jejomar Binay: 2%
- Metro Manila Development Authority Chief Bayani Fernando: 1%
- Interior and Local Government Secretary Ronaldo Puno: 0.2%
It was the first time that Pulse Asia had again included Estrada’s name in the list of presidential candidates that respondents could choose following his conviction for plunder in 2007. He was subsequently pardoned by President Arroyo and released from house arrest.
Hard times
In an interview with abs-cbnNEWS.com/Newsbreak, political analyst Tony Gatmaitan, head of the think-tank Political Applied Economics Research Foundation, said he’s not surprised that Estrada is back in the public mind, saying it’s a reflection of the people’s sentiments in these hard times.
“People feel poor. Who will they look to? They’ll look to somebody who they trust,” he said. “It’s a question of credibility to the poor, not pro-poor programs.”
In the latest June 27-30 survey of Social Weather Stations (SWS), self-rated poverty went up from 50% in the first quarter to 59% in the second. Around 10.6 million rated themselves poor in the survey. It wiped out gains in self-rated poverty reflected in the December 2007 survey when 46% said they were poor, the SWS said.
Man to beat
Although Vice-President De Castro is the top choice for president in the survey, Gatmaitan said he believed Estrada would still be the “man to beat” come 2010.
“Unless somebody is strong enough to beat him. He’s still the man to beat because he’s a heavyweight,” Gatmaitan said. “He’s been there before. All the others are still to be proven.”
Estrada handily won the 1998 presidential elections, winning 39% of the votes in a 10-person race. Former House Speaker Jose de Venecia of the administration party was a far second with 15%.
Together with Estrada’s trips to the provinces, Gatmaitan said these events “send a message that Erap is running” in 2010.
“Now, Erap’s candidacy is a real threat,” he said.
However, Estrada would have to overcome a legal challenge in his presidential bid since Arroyo’s pardon came with a condition that he should not run again.
Other lawyers, however, pointed out that in Arroyo’s grant of pardon, it came with the restoration of Estrada’s civil and political rights, which means he can run again in 2010.
Estrada, in a recent interview with Philippine Daily Inquirer columnist Neal Cruz, said when asked about the 2010 polls: “If opposition presidential wannabes cannot agree on one candidate, I will run myself. More than one candidate will split opposition votes and they will therefore lose to the administration candidate.”
Political parties
Since presidential election is still two years away, Gatmaitan said the results of the latest Pulse Asia survey is important mainly to political parties.
“The political parties will have to choose among party members,” he said.
The presidential survey would have a big impact on administration parties such as Lakas and KAMPI since 8 out of 10 in the list are not members of these two parties.
Only Fernando and Puno, the tailenders, are members of administration parties.
Vice-President De Castro is not a member of these administration parties.
Vice-Presidential choice
In the choices for vice-president, four incumbent senators topped the list:
- Escudero: 25%
- Legarda: 23%
- Francis Pangilinan: 11%
- Jose ‘Jinggoy’ Estrada: 9%
- Senator Ramon Revilla and Makati City Mayor Binay and Batangas Gov.Vilma Santos were tied in fifth place.
Tandems
When asked to choose from three presidential tandems, the survey results were:
- Legarda-Escudero tandem: 40%
- Villar-De Castro tandem: 26%
- Roxas-Pangilinan tandem: 13%
The Pulse Asia’s nationwide survey of 1,200 adults was conducted July 1 to 14. It had a margin of error of plus/minus 3 percent. – with a report from LYNDA JUMILLA, ABS-CBN News
Filed under: 2010 Elections, 2010 Elections, erap